Friday, August 21, 2015

Response to @ANorthInvestments

If you haven't hedged already, then margins are going to be especially squeezed. There is a lot of downward pressure on / WTI prices, and crude oil through Cushing will be very cheap in the next year. The best market for oil and gas companies right now is the global market because of the spread. If exports are opened, there would be a huge institutional movement into the Brent futures market which would reduce the spread and help alleviate some downward pressure on WTI. Time will definitely be the best solution as I predict WTI to be back around $45 at the end of the year with better supply news. Diversification is another avenue to save growth. I think the oil services with established natural gas infrastructure are in the best spot right now. Energy prices are extremely deflated now, but crude oil saturation will experience the longest effects. Driving down costs is extremely important so that companies don't have to take their chances on waiting to hedge. In these times, profits are less important than having solid cash flow and the ability to liquidate in order to retain confidence in the business. So in the market now, I would wait a few weeks maybe a month or two for a small recovery in prices then provide liquidity options for at least half of one's inventory while allowing the rest of the portfolio for speculation as rebounds come. A ratio between the amount of assets hedged now and those reserved for speculative movements would determine the company's desired risk-return ratio. Obviously, waiting opens a portfolio to more risk and higher return. These are my opinions on hedging oil and gas assets as I assume you asked mainly about those because of my specialization.

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